How to Understand China-Russia Relations Under Xi

Chinese President Xi Jinping recently reaffirmed his nation’s commitment to an enhanced partnership with Russia.¹ This pledge occurred during a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Beijing.² President Xi stated clearly that China seeks to deepen relations despite a “turbulent external environment.”³ This high-level coordination is more than symbolic. It confirms the shared strategic choice of both nations. They are committed to consolidating their ties.⁴ This alliance is critical for countering Western pressure.⁵ Furthermore, it is essential for shaping a desired multipolar world order.⁶ The relationship has deepened significantly since the conflict in Ukraine began.⁷ Now, both sides are focusing on long-term economic resilience.

The Strategic Choice: Forging Ahead Amidst Turbulence China-Russia

The meeting between Xi and Mishustin came at a pivotal time in global geopolitics.⁸ It occurred just days after President Xi’s summit with US President Donald Trump.⁹ That meeting resulted in a fragile trade truce.¹⁰ Therefore, the renewed focus on Russia signals that Beijing views its strategic alignment with Moscow as paramount.¹¹ This priority remains even when attempting to stabilize relations with Washington.

A No-Limits Foundation: China and Russia signed a “no-limits” partnership in February 2022. This agreement was made shortly before Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, Beijing has since emerged as a crucial economic lifeline for Russia.¹⁴ Moscow has relied heavily on China to blunt the impact of Western sanctions.¹⁵ The relationship is anchored by strong political mutual trust.¹⁶ It is described by Russian officials as being at its “highest-ever level.”¹⁷
Shared Worldview: President Xi emphasized that China-Russia relations have “forged ahead this year.”¹⁸ He insisted that the enhanced ties represent a “shared strategic choice.”¹⁹ This choice is rooted in a common vision for the global order. The nations agree on the need to oppose what they term “unilateralism and power bullying.”²⁰ They promote an equal, orderly, and multipolar world.²¹ Therefore, their partnership is viewed as a counterweight to the Western-led bloc.²²

Economic Lifeline: Resilience Under Sanctions China-Russia

The economic dimension of the China-Russia partnership is critical. It highlights Russia’s massive pivot toward Asia. This shift is an unavoidable consequence of Western isolation.

Trade Transformation: Bilateral commerce has grown significantly since 2022. Trade volume reached a record high of approximately US$ 245 billion in 202. This growth has been driven primarily by two factors.²⁸ First, China became Russia’s largest purchaser of energy resources. Second, China filled the void left by Western firms. It exported manufactured goods like cars and electronics to the Russian market.²⁹
The Recent Slowdown: However, bilateral trade has slowed down slightly in recent months.³⁰ This dip is due to increased US pressure on China.³¹ Washington has targeted Chinese firms over their commercial and technological links with Moscow.³² Furthermore, new US sanctions specifically targeting Russian oil majors have caused Chinese state firms to pause some seaborne purchases.³³ This volatility shows the limits of the partnership when faced with aggressive secondary sanctions.
The Call for Deeper Investment: In response to these headwinds, President Xi pledged to steadily expand mutual investment.³⁴ He emphasized cooperation in traditional areas like energy, connectivity, agriculture, and aviation.³⁵ He also pointed to new areas of growth.³⁶ These areas include artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and green development.³⁷ This focus aims to deepen the structural integrity of their economic ties.³⁸

Strategic Alignment: Energy, Tech, and Northern Corridors

The cooperation extends far beyond simple commodity trade.³⁹ Both countries are working to align their development strategies.⁴⁰ They are building infrastructure that facilitates mutual interests.

Energy Dominance: Energy remains the central pillar of the partnership.⁴¹ China is now one of the largest markets for Russian oil and gas.⁴² These revenues are vital for sustaining Moscow’s war economy. The two countries are also deepening cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy.⁴³ This long-term energy alliance is designed to provide Russia with secure demand and China with stable supply.
Technology and Defense: China has become Moscow’s most important source of high-tech products and technology.⁴⁴ This reliance is critical for maintaining Russia’s military-industrial complex.⁴⁵ The trade includes both sanctioned and non-sanctioned Western goods.⁴⁶ Estimates suggest that over 80% of the computer chips needed by Russia’s defense industry are now acquired via China and Hong Kong.⁴⁸ This technological support is a major source of concern for Western powers.
The Arctic Route: Furthermore, the partnership is expanding into the Arctic.⁴⁹ Both nations are cooperating on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This ambitious project aims to create a year-round shipping corridor.⁵⁰ This cooperation involves institutional mechanisms for joint decision-making, which is unique in Russia’s foreign relations.⁵¹ The joint goal is to expand logistical and transport infrastructure.⁵²

Defending Shared Interests: The Global Vision China-Russia

The continued high-level engagement and joint statements signal that China and Russia are committed to defending their shared interests in the international arena.⁵³ This coordination is evident within multilateral frameworks.

Multilateral Coordination: Both sides agreed to strengthen their coordination within organizations.⁵⁴ These organizations include the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS, and the United Nations.⁵⁵ They advocate for universally beneficial and inclusive economic globalization.⁵⁶ This joint effort is a clear pushback against Western efforts to isolate Russia.⁵⁷
Mutual Political Support: The political trust remains high.⁵⁸ Russia reaffirmed its adherence to the “one-China” principle.⁵⁹ It reiterated its opposition to “Taiwan independence.”⁶⁰ This unambiguous support on China’s core sovereignty issue is a key element of the partnership. In return, China maintains its insistence on neutrality in the Ukraine conflict.⁶¹ It frequently echoes Kremlin narratives that blame NATO and Western powers for provoking Russia.⁶²
The Future Blueprint: President Xi stressed the need to align development strategies.⁶³ He specifically mentioned integrating China’s 15th Five-Year Plan with Russia’s economic goals. This focus on long-term planning aims to ensure steady, high-quality development for both nations.⁶⁴ The message is clear: despite external turbulence, the strategic partnership will continue to deepen. It is designed to challenge the current international order. China-Russia