Is the US making a great gamble to reshape Iraq?
Are you watching the big moves happening in the Middle East right now? For over twenty years, (great gamble) the United States has been deeply involved in Iraq, mostly through its military power. But as we move through late 2025, a major shift is taking place that some are calling a “great gamble.” The US is currently drawing down its troops and trying to turn a “war-focused” relationship into a “business-focused” one.
This change is exciting, but it also carries a lot of risk. If it works, Iraq could become a stable, modern partner. If it fails, the country could slip back into chaos. In this article, we will look at how the US is trying to reshape Iraq and the hurdles that stand in the way.
The Historic Move Toward Military Withdrawal
The first big part of this gamble is the withdrawal of US soldiers from Iraq’s main cities. For years, thousands of troops have been based at sites like the Ain al-Asad Air Base to fight ISIS. However, under a new agreement reached in late 2024, the US has started to move its forces. By the end of September 2025, many of these bases were handed back to the Iraqi government.
The plan is for most troops to leave the country entirely by the end of 2026. This is a bold move because it ends the era of “coalition warfare” that began two decades ago. The US is betting that the Iraqi army is finally strong enough to stand on its own two feet.
Keeping a Small “Safety Net” in Kurdistan
While most troops are leaving, the US is not completely walking away just yet. There is a small “safety net” being kept in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region in northern Iraq. About 300 to 500 advisors and security personnel will stay at bases in Erbil and Al-Harir.
These troops have a very specific job: to watch over the border with Syria and make sure ISIS doesn’t make a comeback. This “Kurdish focus” is a middle ground between staying too long and leaving too fast. It allows the US to keep an eye on “thugs” and terrorists without being seen as an “occupying force” in Baghdad.
Shifting from “Guns” to “Gold”: The Economic Bet
The most interesting part of the new strategy is the shift toward big business and energy deals. Instead of spending billions on soldiers, the US is now encouraging its giant companies to return to Iraq. In October 2025 alone, several major contracts were signed with American firms to build power plants and gas platforms.
Companies like Excelerate Energy are helping Iraq capture natural gas that used to be wasted. The gamble here is that if Iraq becomes rich and has a strong economy, it will be less likely to fall into war. The US wants to be Iraq’s “partner for prosperity” rather than just its “partner for security.”
Challenging Iran’s Shadow Over Baghdad
One of the biggest “wrinkles” in this plan is the influence of Iran. Iraq’s neighbor has a lot of power over local politicians and armed groups known as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF). The US is currently putting a lot of pressure on the Iraqi government to distance itself from these “Tehran-backed” groups.
Washington has even said that future investments and access to US dollars depend on Iraq curbing these militias. This is a risky move because these groups are very powerful and have many seats in the Iraqi parliament. If the US pushes too hard, it could cause a “political bust” that leads to more instability.
The Dream of the “Development Road”
Iraq has a new plan to become a global leader in trade, and the US is supporting it. It is called the Development Road Project, a $17 billion plan to connect the Persian Gulf to Europe through a network of trains and highways. This “dry canal” would make Iraq a logistical hub for the whole world.
By September 2025, over 60% of the designs were finished, and construction is set to start soon. The US believes that supporting this project will help Iraq move away from its total dependence on oil. It is a massive “geopolitical gamble” to see if Iraq can become a bridge between the East and the West.
Using the “Dollar” as a Diplomatic Tool
Did you know that Iraq’s oil money actually moves through the US Federal Reserve in New York? This gives the United States a lot of power over Iraq’s bank accounts. In 2025, the US has been using this power to stop “dirty money” from flowing to Iran or terrorist groups.
They have placed strict rules on how many dollars Iraq can get and who they can send them to. While this helps fight corruption, it also makes life harder for regular Iraqis because it causes the local currency to lose value. It is a “high-stakes” game of financial pressure that aims to clean up Iraq’s banking system.
The Impact of the 2025 Parliamentary Elections
Everything in Iraq right now is focused on the general elections held in November 2025. These elections were a major test for the country’s young democracy. The US was hoping that a more “moderate” and “independent” government would emerge. While the results showed that some new groups are gaining power, the old political elite still holds a lot of control.
The new parliament will have the final say on the US troop withdrawal and the big energy deals. If the government becomes too “pro-Iran,” the US might decide to pull its support and its investments. The future of the “great gamble” depends on the choices made in these halls of power.
Why the Middle East Order is in Flux
The gamble in Iraq is happening while the whole Middle East is changing. Events like the Gaza ceasefire and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria have shifted the balance of power. The US is trying to create a new “regional architecture” where countries like Iraq and the Gulf states work together for safety.
This “MAHA” (Make the Middle East Healthy Again) approach focuses on building bridges instead of walls. However, with so many old rivalries, this new order is very fragile. Iraq is caught in the middle of a “tug-of-war” between those who want peace and those who want more conflict.
The Risk of a “Security Vacuum”
The biggest fear for many experts is that leaving too soon will create a “security vacuum.” We have seen this happen before in 2011, when the US left and ISIS grew strong very quickly. Even today, ISIS continues to carry out small attacks in the desert areas of Syria and Iraq. If the US-led coalition ends its mission, there is a risk that these “thugs” will regroup.
The US is hoping that by keeping a small force in Kurdistan and using high-tech drones, they can stop this from happening. It is a calculated risk to see if “technology and advisors” can replace “boots on the ground.” great gamble
A Turning Point for the Region great gamble
In conclusion, the US is indeed making a great gamble to reshape Iraq for the year 2026 and beyond. By moving from a military mission to an economic partnership, they are trying to create a “new Iraq” that is stable and independent. From the $17 billion Development Road to the billions in oil and gas contracts, the signs of change are everywhere. great gamble
However, the influence of Iran, the threat of ISIS, and the “political math” of the elections make this a very uncertain path. Only time will tell if this gamble leads to a “golden age” for Iraq or another cycle of violence. For now, the world is watching to see if this historic shift can truly bring peace to the heart of the Middle East. great gamble
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